Roční retro na steroidech aneb kurvy, chlast a chlebicky to nebyly
Summary: I have been quiet for the last month simply because the opportunities for my strategy shrunk as we approached Christmas holiday season. The only trade I was chasing was a USDCAD trade out of which 1 out of 2 positions is still open. The first position ended up as a loss, see red arrow down below. A loss of -1R. Second position was at decent spot of confluence and I am keep holding it, currently being at +3.6R (approx 400pips). It is important to mark that it is unrealized gain 😃 and as with every trade, as long as the trade is Open, the profit is just vapor air, a star dust, nothing. Hopefully I will be able to get that star dust and transfer it into real R profit. My target is still now at 1.36 that would get me to almost 500pips. Lets see if I will be able to get there. On the other hand, anything below 3250 would get me into a “getoutmode”. Lets see how this plays out.
TRADE SUMMARY: market reached a nice flip zone with supply at the highs. Being overextended, it was a good place to short. Unfortunatelly, the bulls were strong enough to push higher. The range suggested it at one point and at second that I should exit. Too slow to adapt.
TRADE SUMMARY: pair coming into a confluence play of 2x DEMAND ZONE AND FLIP ZONE. Good area to play in, market though proved rangeboud afterwards. But should have hold longer since there was no supporting PA for me to exit except for unifisnihed Friday auction and no burst after my entry.
TRADE SUMMARY:market broke 2337 and went higher, which was a critical flip for GBPUSD. After the break, the retest confirmed this level as a flip to hold. Demand was set. When market returned, I got in through the demand hit play on H1. Market then hold the level strongly resisting the strength of USDX. After two days, the pressure broke below 2408, which was my awarness zone, meaning: be careful, if market closes here, market wants to hunt lower prices. Since the break was strong, I have setup an exit TP at the BE on the return being able to exit with a scratch smaller then 0,1R. I was lucky. Market retraced to my TP, and then shit itself. I would end up in full -1R loss. This time I was able to manage my exit out and end up with BE result. Good trade.
TRADE SUMMARY: NZDUSD coming into a very STRONG FTB resistance zone. Pushing higher, AUDUSD creating a STOP FLUSH (fuckery) affecting NZDUSD. NZD being hit not that hard is holding and then dropping. Market and my expectactions were then false. I was targeting lower part of the triangle but hey, am I really capable of holding a pair for more then two weeks? Hard question. I guess my targets were eagerly optimistic. After 66 pips I am exiting on limit out back on retrace. Market is then creating a new low. Not hiting my original TP though, but I would consider that this trade was well managed, but with poor expectations.
TRADE SUMMARY: market continued to highs without be. What a sorrow feeling seeing market move without you. Anyway, observation of the GOLD helped to form a new entry around FLIP zone. Well defended flip zone became a good zone of entry. My entry spot was higher, but was not taken by few ticks (pure luck), that gave me better entry . Market then did all type of fuckery, comments from some asshole came to drag the GOLD up and then straight DOWN. That got me worry a little. By that moment I draw an AZ (awarness zone) where I would exit if the zone did not hold. That did not happen and market went higher. Took stops and stopped. Creating a high, this led to a downhill move again but limited retracement. Decided to exit this trade and not hold it any longer. Time will be the judge of my decission.
TRADE SUMMARY: trade wemt into the old SD zone, zone was not used but had a lower probability due to not creating a highest high around 123 pattern. Market turned into this zone through RAR pattern (RUN, ACCUMULATE, RUN). This was a first sign of weakness of my entry. Market jumped (run) and held the tight range. Then the STOP HUNT started. My SL got me out pretty quickly.
TRADE SUMMARY: market moved into a grade B zone. I have entered on retrace. Market then slowly moved lower and overnight got me out.
TRADE SUMMARY: decent IDp but not great, very good structure, confluence with 38%. Wick structure. Markte then balanced in a bear trap creating lower high. This led me to conclusion that I should exit at market. Held position over weekend and closed for little profit after the open. Well. The rest is history. Market from that moment on in a nice zig zag pattern broke 1264 without me. That led me to conclusion: did I exit correctly