EURO situation

With Spain loosing its AAA rating and situation not improving on structural cuts, with Italy, Portugal and even Hungary being in trouble there are rumors around that EURO might reach parity by the end of next year. Also the possibility for intervention from the ECB side is possible around 1.10level (see top image for previous worldwide interventions and their effect). Looking at the COT for EURO and $INDEX + VIX there is no promising picture unless some levels are breached in the opposite directions. Meanwhile there are new key support levels with EURUSD at 1.1750 and 1.1600. COT report on EURO futures points towards the change if the 0level at SPECS and COMM&LARGE will be broken. With open interest rising we can question the "speculative capital flows". Troubles with EURO can't be classified anymore just by RUSH HEADED & SPECULATIVE RUN ON EURO but as a major shift in perceiving EURO's ability to hold the pressure. VIX is above 30 and as long as it stays there I am not expecting the situation to change significantly. Any other bailout at the moment would be just throwing money out of window and it is not going to change any time soon unless we would hear some terrible news from US. In a meantime – SHORT on pullbacks 😉