Beating Alpha

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My take in today’s USDCHF move

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Today I wanted to play the breakout out (on my T3 strategy) of the 8200 level as stated in my weekend post. I did not manage to get in at the break so I had to wait for retrace. That finally happened and waited for some time to see what level would hold. 8193 has proven to be that level so I rolled in LONG at 8201. After that the position went down to test 8187 (my SL was hanging at 8177 11pips away) and then back to 8195area (relief).

Then came the news which lifted my pos. higher (app.20pips). I was expecting retrace after a slight jump in price and that happened as well. Now I was ready to decide:

1) If the pos exceeds previous  NEWS high I am happy to stay with position and maybe tighten the SL bit more just below 8187
2) If the pos doesn’t exceed the previous HIGH for next 30minutes after retracement has proven to find the bottom I am ready to get out on a slight reversal (below 8206)

Well unfortunately the second scenario happened and I had to close my pos. for a +2pips gain. Good thing about this trade is that if I would stubbornly stayed in, I would have lost the whole pos and generate a loss of 27pips. After this trade I was pretty much done for the day. With VFI strategy generating +8pips it was a very modest day. But hey, it was a profitable day so super grateful for that. Of course few hours later the 50SMA H1 held the down move and moved straight BACK up straight to my target  hitting 8276 very quickly (wasnt around tradestation anymore). But that is the market timing you can’t control.

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