Week ahead – EURGBP, EURNZD, GBPAUD

What a OVERpumped FX week we have experienced. Last week I have stated that I like EURUSD 4000 level for shorting. This level did not provide much of a resistance or any type of decent reversal candle pattern. On the other hand GBPUSD 6000 level offered nice resistance & 3:1RR. I traded this level on retracement which came after bigger seller stepped in. Overall  +48pips while risking 16pips. I am really sad from USDCAD trade which I missed while being away :(. This trade could provide possibly 10:1RR when after reaction from 1.0000 and BOC statement move the pair towards 1.2000 in a matter of few hours. Well, you never choose the right timing and this was the case. 

My last trade happened on Thursday when I went in LONG during the morning London session. This trade provided 5:1RR but here I have to blame my eagerness to trade – I totally ignored the trading range where EURJPY was held in and my stop-loss was too tight. Eventually the pair tested the lower side of the range and after that went straight up to my initial target – overall good idea, poor stop-loss level. I did not like the action during the Thursday afternoon – I came back from the gym and I was pretty shocked how EURO reacted. I did not understand this price action and refused to trade & participate – no plays and setups for me. As I stated on my twitter feed: “This RACE TO THE MOON had to left many of those who wanted get back to EARTH in TEARS.” Those who have faded the market more than twice and without any success were simply driven by emotions. Period!

Looking ahead I see three pairs which are consolidating right now and can offer good RR trades. EURGBP has broken the MAGICAL 8800 level and I would love to see where the consolidation stops. Same thing works for GBPAUD. Also broken down strongly and I am looking forward to see some kind of retracement. If it comes to the previous level of support and will respect it I will try to pull some shorts. Last trade is a bit longer term and not fully developed yet – triangelling EURNZD. In terms of EURUSD I simply do not know what to think. $1,4 trillion has been spit in the market and some plasters have been provided. Right now I simply have no opinion and will only play short term price action on my VFI strategy. Let’s see what market prepares for us after the open.

Have a good one!